Prediction Markets
GX Exchange prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy YES if you think something will happen, buy NO if you think it won’t. If you’re right, you get paid.
What Are Prediction Markets?
A prediction market turns any question into a tradeable contract. Each contract has a price between $0.01 and $0.99 that represents the market’s estimated probability of the event occurring.
| Price You Pay | Implied Probability | Payout If Correct |
|---|---|---|
| $0.25 | 25% | $1.00 (profit: $0.75) |
| $0.50 | 50% | $1.00 (profit: $0.50) |
| $0.72 | 72% | $1.00 (profit: $0.28) |
| $0.90 | 90% | $1.00 (profit: $0.10) |
The price reflects what traders collectively believe the probability is. If Bitcoin holders are confident BTC will hit $200k by year-end, the YES price on that market will be high. If the market is uncertain, the price sits near $0.50.
Key rule: YES price + NO price = $1.00. Always. If YES costs $0.72, NO costs $0.28.
Market Types
Binary (YES / NO)
The simplest type. One question, two outcomes.
“Will Bitcoin exceed $200,000 by December 31, 2026?”
YES $0.42 | NO $0.58
You pick a side and an amount. If the event resolves in your favor, each token pays $1.00.
Multi-Outcome
Questions with three or more possible answers. You first select which option you believe in, then buy YES or NO on that specific option.
“Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
Brazil $0.18 | France $0.15 | Argentina $0.14 | Germany $0.09 | Other $0.44
Each option is its own binary market. Buying Brazil YES at $0.18 means you profit $0.82 per token if Brazil wins.
Up/Down
Short-duration price prediction markets for live events. Will BTC be higher or lower than a target price at a specific time?
“Will BTC be above $150,000 at 4:00 PM UTC today?”
UP $0.63 | DOWN $0.37
These markets resolve quickly (minutes to hours) and are suited for active traders.
How to Place a Bet
- Browse markets — Navigate to the Prediction Markets tab. Filter by category: Sports, Crypto, Politics, Economics, Culture, or Tech.
- Select a market — Click any market to view its details, current prices, volume, and resolution date.
- Choose your position — Click YES or NO. For multi-outcome markets, select an option first, then choose YES or NO.
- Enter your amount — Type the USDC amount you want to bet. The interface shows your potential payout and profit.
- Confirm — Approve the transaction with your wallet. Your position is recorded on-chain.
- Track it — Your open positions appear in your Portfolio under the Predictions tab.
How Pricing Works
Prices are set by supply and demand. As more traders buy YES, the YES price rises and the NO price falls. As more traders buy NO, the opposite happens.
Example walkthrough:
| Step | Action | YES Price | NO Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market opens | $0.50 | $0.50 |
| 2 | Traders buy YES | $0.65 | $0.35 |
| 3 | News shifts sentiment | $0.72 | $0.28 |
| 4 | Event happens (YES wins) | $1.00 | $0.00 |
- A trader who bought YES at $0.50 and held to resolution profits $0.50 per token.
- A trader who bought YES at $0.72 and held to resolution profits $0.28 per token.
- A trader who bought NO at any price loses their full bet.
You do not have to hold until resolution. You can sell your position at any time at the current market price to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
Categories
| Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| Sports | Soccer, Basketball, Golf, FIFA World Cup, NHL, Tennis |
| Crypto | Bitcoin price targets, ETH milestones, DeFi TVL, token launches |
| Politics | US elections, global leadership, geopolitical events, policy decisions |
| Economics | Interest rates, inflation data, GDP, stock market milestones |
| Culture | Award shows, box office records, viral moments, social media milestones |
| Tech | AI breakthroughs, product launches, space missions, regulatory rulings |
Resolution
Every market has a resolution date — the deadline by which the outcome must be determined.
- The resolution date arrives.
- The GX oracle network verifies the real-world outcome from trusted data sources.
- The market resolves as YES or NO (or a specific option for multi-outcome markets).
- Winning tokens pay out $1.00 each. Losing tokens pay $0.00.
- Winners claim their payout from the Predictions tab in Portfolio.
What If a Market Cannot Be Resolved?
If the oracle cannot determine a definitive outcome within 30 days after the resolution date, the market is cancelled. All participants receive a full refund of their original bet amount, minus any fees already paid on trades.
Early Resolution
In rare cases, a market may resolve early if the outcome becomes certain before the scheduled date (e.g., a team is mathematically eliminated from a tournament).
Fees
A flat 2% fee is charged on every prediction market trade (both buys and sells).
| Recipient | Share | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| GX Stakers | 40% | Rewards for securing the network |
| GX Burn | 20% | Permanent token supply reduction |
| Insurance Fund | 20% | Covers edge cases and market cancellations |
| Treasury | 20% | Development, grants, operations |
No fees are charged on resolution payouts. You receive the full $1.00 per winning token.
Supported Collateral
| Token | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USDC | Live | Primary collateral for all prediction markets |
| USDT | Planned | Auto-swapped to USDC via GX Swap Router |
| GX | Planned | Auto-swapped to USDC via GX Swap Router |
All bets settle in USDC regardless of deposit token. When non-USDC tokens are supported, the GX Swap Router converts them automatically at market rate before placing the bet.
Profit & Loss Examples
Binary Market — Correct Prediction
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Buy YES | 100 tokens at $0.40 each = $40.00 |
| Fee (2%) | $0.80 |
| Total cost | $40.80 |
| Event resolves YES | 100 tokens x $1.00 = $100.00 |
| Net profit | $59.20 |
Binary Market — Incorrect Prediction
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Buy YES | 100 tokens at $0.40 each = $40.00 |
| Fee (2%) | $0.80 |
| Total cost | $40.80 |
| Event resolves NO | 100 tokens x $0.00 = $0.00 |
| Net loss | -$40.80 |
Selling Before Resolution
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Buy YES | 50 tokens at $0.30 each = $15.00 |
| Fee (2%) | $0.30 |
| Price moves to $0.55 | |
| Sell YES | 50 tokens at $0.55 each = $27.50 |
| Fee (2%) | $0.55 |
| Net profit | $11.65 |
FAQ
What happens if I’m wrong? You lose your bet amount. If you bought 10 YES tokens at $0.60 each ($6.00 total) and the market resolves NO, you receive nothing back.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves? Yes. You can sell at any time at the current market price. This lets you take profit early if the price has moved in your favor, or cut losses if it has moved against you.
What if the oracle doesn’t resolve the market? If no resolution occurs within 30 days after the deadline, the market is cancelled and all participants receive a full refund.
Is there a minimum bet? 1 USDC minimum per trade.
Is there a maximum bet? No hard cap, but large orders may experience slippage depending on market liquidity.
Can I create my own market? Not yet. Markets are curated and created by the GX team to ensure quality, clarity, and resolvability. Community-created markets are on the roadmap.
How is the oracle outcome verified? The GX validator network sources data from multiple independent providers. A consensus mechanism requires agreement from a supermajority of validators before a market resolves.
What tokens can I bet with? USDC is currently the only supported collateral. Additional tokens (USDT, GX) will be routed through the GX Swap Router when available.
Risk Disclaimer
Prediction markets carry risk. By participating, you acknowledge:
- You can lose your entire bet. If the outcome goes against your position, your tokens are worth $0.00.
- Probabilities are not guarantees. A market priced at $0.90 still has a 10% implied chance of not occurring.
- Markets may be cancelled. If an event becomes unresolvable, the market cancels with refunds, but fees on prior trades are not returned.
- Liquidity risk. Low-volume markets may have wider spreads, making it harder to enter or exit at favorable prices.
- Oracle risk. Resolution depends on the oracle network correctly reporting real-world outcomes.
Prediction markets on GX Exchange are not financial advice. Trade only with funds you can afford to lose.